A new test has been announced that could drastically improve the ability of law enforcement and employers to determine if people are under the influence of cannabis.

South Africa’s changing stance on marijuana

Testing of the substance has become quite complicated in South Africa after it was effectively made legal in the country.

In September 2018 the Constitutional Court ruled that the use, possession, or growth of cannabis in the privacy of one’s own home, for their own consumption, should no longer be considered a criminal offense.

This means that it is now legal for South Africans to be stoned in the comfort of their own homes but it is still illegal to drive your car while intoxicated or even smoke cannabis in a public place.

Up to this point, testing of cannabis has involved sending a urine sample to a lab for testing. While incredibly accurate, this method only really showed whether or not someone has consumed cannabis within the timeframe of about a month.

Existing cannabis testing methods no longer effective

With the use of cannabis now legal in the home, this left employers and law enforcement in a difficult position when it came to checking if someone was suspect of being stoned where they shouldn’t be.

“In terms of the law, somebody is entitled to smoke cannabis at home,” said attorney Craig Harvey told Independent Media.

“If you used it yesterday, you come to work, you shouldn’t be under the influence, but you’ll test positive (on a urine test).”

Craig Harvey

New test could make law enforcement more effective

The new test narrows that window significantly and can apparently detect whether the person in question has used cannabis within the last three hours, which is a pretty good timeframe because you almost certainly shouldn’t be driving a car within three hours of smoking weed.

“The saliva test shows if you used it in the last three hours. The saliva test is now the most accurate,” claims Harvey.

Craig Harvey

Harvey specialises in cases of personal cannabis use and is currently awaiting judgement in a trial in which his client was dismissed following a positive urine test for cannabis.

One of his expert witnesses in the case, Quinton van Kerken, owns the company who developed the new test.

“With cannabis, we’ve got about a three-hour window where it’s effective and you’re actually ‘stoned’. After that there’s nothing. It just happens to be in your system,” Van Kerken told IOL.

“How can something that you do legally in the comfort of your own home suddenly become illegal when you set foot into work?”

Quinton van Kerken

The first two batches of Colombian CBD have been exported to Europe as the South American country steps-up efforts to become a leading global player.

The Colombian government recently granted its first CBD isolate export permit to PharmaCielo and it has now shipped its first batch to the Swiss firm Creso Pharma. Meanwhile, Bogota-based Clever Leaves has successfully cleared U.K. customs with a batch of Colombian CBD destined for the booming British retail market.

Why Colombia Is A Key Cannabis Country

A favorable climate, cheap labor, low construction costs and a supportive Government is driving the Colombian cannabis industry. Cannabis has been decriminalized in the country for over 20 years and in 2016 it passed a law allowing for the cultivation, processing and export of medicinal cannabis.

But, Health Europa reports that in reality Colombia has only been able to successfully export a small quantity of dried flower to Canada for scientific research, to date. However these two European export deals show that the CBD export industry is ramping up in earnest.

Canada Comes To Colombia

PharmaCielo is based in Rionegro, Colombia, and  listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It is one of the world’s largest licensed producer with a foot print the size of 260 football fields and a yearly flower capacity of 5,530,000 kilograms, it says. 

It is currently in the process of buying Creso Pharma for over U.S $80 million; it is an Australian firm with operations in Switzerland and cultivation facilities in Canada, Colombia, and Israel. 

Colombia’s ambition has attracted Canada’s three largest cannabis firms – Canopy Growth Corp, Aurora and Aphria – who have all acquired licensed producers in Colombia with many mid-tier international players following suit, reports Health Europa. 

Latin America On The Up

The LATAM (Latin American)  Cannabis Report published by Prohibition Partners says with over ten major markets on the continent have legalised medical cannabis – sales were worth $125 million in 2018, and are expected to rise to $12.7 billion by 2028.

Stephen Murphy, Managing Director at Prohibition Partners, said Colombia has become one of the world’s most ‘attractive cannabis markets as international cannabis companies take advantage of favourable export laws’.

He went on to say that the growth of cannabis in Latin American ‘will significantly impact the global cannabis industry, undercutting producers and pricing worldwide’.

New York officials may have found an answer for the mysterious rash of illnesses linked to vaping that has already claimed three lives in the United States. On Thursday, the state’s Department of Health announced that it had uncovered lab results that identified “very high levels” of vitamin E acetate in “nearly all” the cannabis products they had examined in relationship to the vaping illness. Authorities say vitamin E is now “a key focus” of the investigation going forward.

“It is really starting to look like this is a cannabis vaping issue and that it may not have anything to do with e-cigarettes,” Michael Siegel of Boston University, who is a tobacco expert and public health professor, told USA Today.

Across the county, over 215 vape users have been hospitalized for breathing problems, and there have been three reported deaths to date, one in Oregon, one in Illinois, and one in Indiana. The condition has often been misdiagnosed as pneumonia, and patients have complained of cough, shortness of breath, chest pain, fatigue, fever and gastrointestinal distress such as nausea, abdominal pain, and diarrhea, among other symptoms. In New York, those who had been hit with the lung condition were mainly between the ages of 17 and 30.

New York Department of Health officials said that vitamin E acetate had been identified in each sample of cannabis products submitted by affected individuals. The Food and Drug Administration had also identified vitamin E oil in many samples submitted by patients.

“No one substance, including vitamin E acetate, has been identified in all of the samples tested,” said FDA spokesperson Michael Felberbaum to CBS News. “Importantly, identifying any compounds that are present in the samples will be one piece of the puzzle but will not necessarily answer questions about causality,” Felberbaum said. “The results from the FDA’s laboratory analysis will be shared with the respective states to aid in their investigations and will help further inform the federal response.”

Indiana has seen 30 incidents of the illness, which, similar to New York, has affected mostly people between the ages of 16 and 29. A study conducted within the state between 2012 and 2018 found that vaping was up 387 percent in high school students.

On Friday, Indiana’s Health Commissioner Kris Box told vapers to proceed with caution when using cannabis products.

“The tragic loss of a Hoosier and rising number of vaping-related injuries are warnings that we cannot ignore,” she said. “While it is unclear what substances are causing injury, when you use these products with other chemicals, you may not know everything that you’re inhaling and the harm it can cause.”

Concern over vaping, which appears to be replacing smoking for many US residents and has seen soaring rates among teenagers, has led some jurisdictions to ban e-cigarettes. Michigan became the first state to prohibit the sale of flavored e-cigs. In June, San Francisco — home to the corporate headquarters of Juul, the leading e-cig producer — announced a ban on the sale of e-cigarettes. Juul has spent $4.3 million so far on a ballot measure to overturn the ban, and is on track to break records when it comes to political spending on such a measure in the city.

Marijuana is one of the fastest growing industries on the planet. Legal weed sales have more than tripled between 2014 and 2018, and they're on track to roughly quadruple between the $10.9 billion generated in licensed cannabis stores 2018 and the projected $40.6 billion in worldwide licensed store sales by 2024. That's according to the 2019 "State of the Legal Cannabis Markets" report released earlier this year by Arcview Market Research and BDS Analytics.

Yet, what you might find intriguing about this rapid growth is that it'll wind up being attributed to just a select few countries. Even though more than three dozen countries around the world have legalized medical marijuana, five countries are forecast by Arcview and BDS to account for $38.2 billion of this aforementioned $40.6 billion in licensed-store sales by 2024. Note, licensed-store sales doesn't include general retailers selling cannabidiol (CBD) products, or cannabinoid-based drug developers selling pot-derived pharmaceuticals.

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A black silhouette of the United States that's partially filled in by cannabis baggies, rolled joints, and a scale.

1. United States: $30.1 billion in cannabis spending by 2024

As should be no surprise, the U.S. projects as the leading marijuana market in the world by sales in 2024. In fact, the $30.1 billion in licensed-store revenue should comprise almost three-quarters of global licensed sales. According to Arcview and BDS, $9 billion of these sales are expected to come from the medical side of the equation, up from $4 billion in 2018, with the remaining $21.1 billion derived from recreational marijuana, up from $5.9 billion last year.

The thing about the U.S. is that cannabis stocks can still thrive even if the federal government doesn't change its classification of marijuana from Schedule I. As long as Congress and the president continue to respect the right of states to make their own choices on cannabis, the industry could have plenty of runway.

One of the fastest early stage growers looks to be multistate dispensary operator Cresco Labs (OTC: CRLBF). Cresco, which holds the licenses to more than four dozen retail locations in 11 states, made a bold move in April when it announced an all-stock deal to acquire Origin House (OTC: ORHOF). Origin House is one of only a few companies to hold a cannabis distribution license in California, the state responsible for a quarter of all U.S. marijuana spending by 2024. Thus, Cresco Labs' purchase of Origin House will give it access to more than 500 Californian dispensaries, and over 700 nationwide. Cresco and its vertically integrated peers appear well-positioned to take advantage of this huge growth opportunity.

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A cannabis leaf laid within the outline of the Canadian flag's maple leaf, with rolled joints and a cannabis bud to the left of the flag.

2. Canada: $5.18 billion by 2024

Despite being the first industrialized country in the world to legalize recreational weed, Canada looks to take a distant second to the United States by 2024 in terms of sales. Arcview and BDS are projecting that $4.8 billion in sales will come from the recreational market by then, with the remainder made up of medical cannabis sales. It's not uncommon for the medical industry to get cannibalized when adult-use marijuana is legalized, because it means patients no longer have to wait for a doctor's approval and prescription to buy weed.

There's a lot of competition in Canada right now, so it's still unclear which company will be Canada's kingpin. However, Aurora Cannabis (NYSE: ACB) is a relatively good bet to be near the top of the pack solely based on its production potential. Aurora is already leaps and bounds ahead of its next-closest competitors with an annual run-rate output of 150,000 kilos as of the end of March, and plans to be producing at least 625,000 kilos on a run-rate basis by the end of June 2020. With most of this production located in Canada, and the company sporting a number of large-scale grow farms, Aurora Cannabis should be able to take advantage of economies of scale to drive down its growing costs per gram.

Of course, the real near-term excitement revolves around the upcoming launch of derivative products (e.g,, edibles, vapes, topicals, concentrates, and infused beverages) by mid-December. Derivatives have much better margins and pricing power than dried cannabis flower, which is why Aurora Cannabis and its peers have been busy beefing up their product offerings over the past year in preparation for this upcoming launch date.

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A physician with a stethoscope around his neck holding a baggy of cannabis in his left hand and cannabis oil capsules in his right hand.

3. Germany: $1.35 billion by 2024

Even though Arcview and BDS are not expecting Germany to legalize recreational cannabis, the company's highly permissive stance toward medical marijuana, and the fact that health insurers cover medical weed in the country, should allow sales to soar from $79 million in 2018 to $1.35 billion by 2024.

Interestingly enough, Canadian cannabis stocks were actually big-time winners of the German cultivation licensing process. Both Aurora Cannabis and Aphria (NYSE: APHA) were awarded licenses to grow cannabis in Germany. For its part, Aphria plans to have an 8,000-square-meter facility in Germany that'll begin supplying the country with medical marijuana in the early part of 2020. In addition to growing cannabis, Aphria introduced CannRelief in Germany, which is a CBD-based nutraceutical and cosmetics product line. 

As for Aurora Cannabis, its approval to construct a growing facility will allow the company to supply the German market with 4,000 kilos of marijuana over four years, with shipments expected to commence October 2020. Of course, this production capacity is liable to be bumped up if patient demand merits it. 

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The Mexican flag colors and seal superimposed atop a bed of cannabis leaves.

4. Mexico: $1.02 billion by 2024

Arguably one of the oddest "legality" situations concerning marijuana right now is with Mexico. The nation's Supreme Court has ruled five times since 2015 that imposing a ban on recreational cannabis is unconstitutional. That's important, because when Mexico's Supreme Court reaches five similar decisions on an issue, it becomes the standard throughout the country. Or, in layman's terms, the Supreme Court has essentially affirmed the legality of recreational marijuana and is simply waiting for lawmakers in the country to hash out the details.

According to Arcview and BDS, Mexico will have legalized adult-use cannabis by 2024, although the ramp-up of legal sales could be slow. By 2024, recreational weed sales are only expected total $582 million, with an additional $441 million in medical spending, for a combined $1.02 billion. Mexico's considerably larger population than Canada makes for an attractive market opportunity, but it's unclear how well legal industries will fare with the noted presence of illicit producers.

One company that hasn't been shy about its push into Mexico is Medical Marijuana, Inc. (OTC: MJNA), the very first publicly listed pot stock. Southern California-based Medical Marijuana was the first company to import CBD-rich oils into Mexico in 2016, giving it a head start on building important relationships with the country's medical community. You'll note that even with recreational legalization likely on the horizon, medical spending should continue to grow in Mexico. That gives Medical Marijuana and its RSHO-X hemp oil a real shot to continue penetrating the Mexico's medical cannabis market. 

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A young man wearing a British flag-themed shirt and sunglasses standing in front of the River Thames with Parliament in the background.

5. United Kingdom: $546.9 million by 2024

Although it may not be on track to tip the scales at $1 billion in sales by 2024, the U.K. is poised to be one of the fastest growing countries in the world based on cannabis spending. After only $9.9 million in medical spending last year, Britain is forecast for almost $547 million in medical marijuana revenue by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of 95.2%.

This sudden push to legalize and normalize medical pot use in the U.K. can be partially attributed to the success of GW Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: GWPH), the cannabinoid-based drug developer that had the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approve the very first cannabis-derived drug last year. GW Pharmaceuticals' CBD-based oral solution known as Epidiolex dazzled in late-stage studies and wound up reducing seizure frequency for patients with two rare forms of childhood-onset epilepsy by 30% to 40%. Additionally, GW Pharmaceuticals' Sativex, an oromucosal spray containing both CBD and tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), is approved in more than a dozen markets in Europe (but not the U.S.).

Britain's citizens and its government have seen what the U.K.-based GW Pharmaceuticals can do with cannabinoids, and its government has been open to the possibility of expanding access to marijuana-based products for medical patients.