As the country slowly opens up and returns to a semblance of normalcy, many Americans may struggle to remember that this year is also an election year—and unsurprisingly a pivotal one at that. Beyond the important matters of protecting the lives of our citizens and rebuilding the economy, the future of the cannabis industry will also be determined in this year’s election, although not in the branch of government that many might expect. 

Several experts agree that if a major piece of cannabis legislation—such as federal legalization—is able to pass successfully through both chambers of Congress, then either a Trump or Biden administration would be supportive of enacting that bill into law, given the overwhelming majority of U.S. adults (91%) believe that some form of adult recreational use or medical use cannabis should be legal, according to a survey from the Pew Research Center.

In fact, both Trump and Biden have openly stated that they would sign cannabis legislation into law if Congress, or more importantly, the U.S. Senate sends it to them. As a result, the real election race that the industry is watching are the seats that are “up for grabs” in the Senate, where a Republican majority has repeatedly strangled the prospect of any meaningful cannabis legislation from being brought to the floor for a vote. 

When the U.S. House of Representatives passed the SAFE Banking Act in September 2019 by an overwhelming 3-to-1 ratio of votes, which included 91 Republicans voting in favor of the bill, many (rightly) believed that the bill would have a much harder time getting onto the floor of the U.S. Senate. Key among the many challenges is the fact that Senator Mike Crapo, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has argued in opposition of the bill in its current form, which would allow banks, credit unions, and financial institutions to legally serve cannabis firms without any fear of federal reprisal.

Senator Crapo suggested in December 2019 that the bill would have to be significantly modified in order to be considered in the Senate, including imposing stringent requirements that would be infeasible for the industry (or the supporting financial institutions) to meet, such as the proposed potency cap on THC in cannabis products. 

In addition to Crapo, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has also opposed the bill, which has hindered the SAFE Banking Act’s progress in the Senate, especially in the current COVID-19-driven environment. Yet, before anyone writes off the possibility that major cannabis legislation will be passed this election year, there are a couple of important catalysts to note.

The first is the SAFE Banking Act’s increased likelihood for finally getting passed by the Senate. The bill was recently included in the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act, which is a $3 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in May 2020. 

After the bill was passed in the House, The Senate Republican Conference (SRC) tweeted—and then quickly deleted—a post that characterized the SAFE Banking Act as a “political-pipe-dream.” Hours later, however, the SRC was reminded that Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado is actually a chief advocate of the SAFE Banking Act, and is running a tight reelection race this election year against current Democratic frontrunner, former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, with a recent poll showing Gardner falling behind significantly. 

This political faux pas demonstrates the intriguing quagmire the Republican party is in this year: should it continue its anti-cannabis stance on ideological grounds or does Senator McConnell use this bill as a way to score points for Gardner, whose seat is pivotal to the GOP maintaining its control of the Senate and Senator Crapo maintaining his Senate Chairmanship? Based off the SRC’s decision to quickly delete their tweet, the evidence would probably suggest the latter. Yet, fortunately for the cannabis industry, the fight for Cory Gardner’s seat is not the only catalyst for more favorable legislation. 

Given the devastating economic damage COVID-19 has caused—and is continuing to cause—state and federal budgets have been decimated, unemployment continues to soar, and consumer sentiment is completely shaken. Even obstinate opponents of cannabis can not deny the industry’s profound positive impact on the U.S. economy, having employed nearly 240,000 Americans and creating nearly $2 billion in tax revenue in 2019 alone.

For that reason alone, Senate Republicans might have no choice but to approve the HEROES Act, or a similar alternative more amenable to them, for fear that not doing so may irrevocably impair their popularity among their constituents, many of whom have been severely impacted by the economic turmoil COVID-19 has unleashed. Any signs of “not playing ball” on this and other cannabis-friendly bills—including “full-on” federal legalization—may cause the Republicans to lose their majority in the Senate, an outcome that hardly any Republican Senator is willing to accept. 

So, while the jury is still out on the exact course that cannabis legislation will take in the next few weeks and months, one thing is certain: the race for the Presidency this year is far less pivotal for the cannabis industry than the race for the U.S. Senate, which remains a significant blockade for the SAFE Banking Act and, ultimately, federal legalization. 

Only time will tell how the GOP will try to maintain their coveted status in the Senate—time that is slowly running out and forcing the political party to unwillingly hand the industry its biggest political victory to date.